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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 14

Erzurumspor FK

ERZ

Kocaelispor

KOC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Erzurumspor FK28%
Draw34%
Kocaelispor37%

Expected goals

0.86 – 1.01

Over 2.5

29%

Both to score

38%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–017.1%
  • 0–115.6%
  • 1–113.5%
  • 1–012.9%
  • 0–27.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Kocaelispor will have the ball; Erzurumspor FK will not mind.

44%Possession54%
37%Territory34%
8%From set plays42%
0.12Chance quality0.09
5.5%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Erzurumspor FK, 3 for Kocaelispor. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 89 matches, not the full season.