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Süper Lig · Matchweek 14

Beşiktaş

BEI

Samsunspor

SAM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Beşiktaş67%
Draw20%
Samsunspor14%

Expected goals

2.21 – 0.94

Over 2.5

60%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2010.6%
  • 1010.1%
  • 219.9%
  • 118.9%
  • 307.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

58%Possession58%
43%Territory40%
22%From set plays21%
0.13Chance quality0.08
5.0%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Beşiktaş, 3 for Samsunspor. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.