Süper Lig · Matchweek 14
Beşiktaş
BEI
Samsunspor
SAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Beşiktaş67%
Draw20%
Samsunspor14%
Expected goals
2.21 – 0.94
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.6%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession58%
43%Territory40%
22%From set plays21%
0.13Chance quality0.08
5.0%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Beşiktaş, 3 for Samsunspor. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.