Süper Lig · Matchweek 14
Başakşehir
BAA
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Başakşehir23%
Draw24%
Fenerbahçe53%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.89
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.9%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–36.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession53%
36%Territory35%
15%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.09
8.3%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Başakşehir, 3 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Başakşehir
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.