Süper Lig · Matchweek 14
Başakşehir
BAA
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Başakşehir34%
Draw25%
Fenerbahçe41%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.67
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession54%
33%Territory41%
30%From set plays21%
0.12Chance quality0.10
6.8%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Başakşehir, 3 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 89 matches, not the full season.