Club Football Intelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 13

Sun, 29 Nov, 16:00 UTC

Fenerbahçe

FEN

16:00 UTC

Erzurumspor FK

ERZ

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Fenerbahçe68%

Draw20%

Erzurumspor FK12%

Expected goals

2.11 – 0.81

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

2–012.0%
1–012.0%
2–19.8%
1–19.1%
3–08.1%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Fenerbahçe will have the ball; Erzurumspor FK will not mind.

54%Possession44%

41%Territory37%

21%From set plays8%

0.10Chance quality0.12

6.0%Directness5.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fenerbahçe, 3 for Erzurumspor FK. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Fenerbahçe

Romelu LukakuFW1G 1A 0.69/90
Levent MercanDF0G 1A 0.40/90
Oğuz AydınFW0G 1A 0.37/90

Erzurumspor FK

Miguel CardosoFW2G 0A 0.83/90
Eren TozluFW1G 1A 0.73/90
Guram GiorbelidzeDF1G 1A 0.67/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 89 matches, not the full season.