Süper Lig · Matchweek 12
Kocaelispor
KOC
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Kocaelispor22%
Draw29%
Fenerbahçe49%
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.40
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–011.5%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–28.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession53%
38%Territory35%
14%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.3%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kocaelispor, 3 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.