Süper Lig · Matchweek 12
Kocaelispor
KOC
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Kocaelispor27%
Draw30%
Fenerbahçe43%
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.29
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 1–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Kocaelispor get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
54%Possession54%
34%Territory41%
42%From set plays21%
0.09Chance quality0.10
7.2%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kocaelispor, 3 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Kocaelispor
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 89 matches, not the full season.