Süper Lig · Matchweek 12
Galatasaray
GAL
Samsunspor
SAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Galatasaray71%
Draw17%
Samsunspor12%
Expected goals
2.47 – 0.97
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–17.8%
- 3–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
60%Possession58%
45%Territory40%
32%From set plays21%
0.11Chance quality0.08
6.2%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Galatasaray, 3 for Samsunspor. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.