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Süper Lig · Matchweek 12

Başakşehir

BAA

Çorum FK

ORU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Başakşehir47%
Draw24%
Çorum FK29%

Expected goals

1.87 – 1.47

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

66%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1110.0%
  • 219.1%
  • 107.1%
  • 127.0%
  • 226.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

56%Possession49%
36%Territory33%
15%From set plays1%
0.10Chance quality0.11
8.3%Directness6.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Başakşehir, 3 for Çorum FK. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.