Süper Lig · Matchweek 12
Başakşehir
BAA
Çorum FK
ORU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Başakşehir47%
Draw24%
Çorum FK29%
Expected goals
1.87 – 1.47
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–07.1%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession49%
36%Territory33%
15%From set plays1%
0.10Chance quality0.11
8.3%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Başakşehir, 3 for Çorum FK. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Başakşehir
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.