Süper Lig · Matchweek 12
Kasımpaşa
KAS
Alanyaspor
ALA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Kasımpaşa39%
Draw30%
Alanyaspor31%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.08
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession46%
28%Territory37%
22%From set plays31%
0.10Chance quality0.14
6.7%Directness7.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kasımpaşa, 3 for Alanyaspor. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.