Süper Lig · Matchweek 11
Çorum FK
ORU
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Çorum FK22%
Draw25%
Fenerbahçe53%
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.78
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–28.7%
- 0–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession54%
38%Territory41%
20%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.9%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Çorum FK, 3 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 89 matches, not the full season.