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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 11

Göztepe

GZT

Başakşehir

BAA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Göztepe50%
Draw23%
Başakşehir27%

Expected goals

1.94 – 1.41

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.8%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–07.3%
  • 2–26.6%
  • 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Başakşehir will have the ball; Göztepe will not mind.

39%Possession56%
36%Territory36%
56%From set plays15%
0.12Chance quality0.10
7.6%Directness8.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Göztepe, 3 for Başakşehir. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.