Süper Lig · Matchweek 10
Başakşehir
BAA
Samsunspor
SAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Başakşehir44%
Draw25%
Samsunspor31%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.40
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–27.3%
- 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession58%
36%Territory40%
15%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.08
8.3%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Başakşehir, 3 for Samsunspor. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Başakşehir
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.