Süper Lig · Matchweek 9
Beşiktaş
BEI
Başakşehir
BAA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Beşiktaş68%
Draw18%
Başakşehir14%
Expected goals
2.41 – 1.04
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession56%
43%Territory36%
22%From set plays15%
0.13Chance quality0.10
5.0%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Beşiktaş, 3 for Başakşehir. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Başakşehir
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.