Süper Lig · Matchweek 9
Galatasaray
GAL
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Galatasaray48%
Draw25%
Fenerbahçe27%
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.31
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
60%Possession53%
45%Territory35%
32%From set plays28%
0.11Chance quality0.09
6.2%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Galatasaray, 3 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.