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Süper Lig · Matchweek 8

Fenerbahçe

FEN

Alanyaspor

ALA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Fenerbahçe61%
Draw23%
Alanyaspor16%

Expected goals

1.87 – 0.89

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1012.4%
  • 2010.9%
  • 1110.5%
  • 219.9%
  • 007.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession46%
35%Territory37%
28%From set plays31%
0.09Chance quality0.14
5.7%Directness7.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fenerbahçe, 3 for Alanyaspor. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.