Süper Lig · Matchweek 8
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Alanyaspor
ALA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fenerbahçe61%
Draw23%
Alanyaspor16%
Expected goals
1.87 – 0.89
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 2–010.9%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession46%
35%Territory37%
28%From set plays31%
0.09Chance quality0.14
5.7%Directness7.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fenerbahçe, 3 for Alanyaspor. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.