Süper Lig · Matchweek 7
Alanyaspor
ALA
Erzurumspor FK
ERZ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Alanyaspor54%
Draw26%
Erzurumspor FK20%
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.90
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession38%
37%Territory32%
31%From set plays36%
0.14Chance quality0.08
7.9%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Alanyaspor, 3 for Erzurumspor FK. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.