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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 25

Alverca

ALV

Famalicão

FAM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Alverca44%
Draw28%
Famalicão28%

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.13

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.5%
  • 1–011.4%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–08.6%
  • 0–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

33%Possession49%
24%Territory25%
36%From set plays46%
0.13Chance quality0.07
6.3%Directness5.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Alverca, 3 for Famalicão. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.