Liga Portugal · Matchweek 25
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Arouca
ARO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estrela da Amadora32%
Draw29%
Arouca39%
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.29
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession67%
39%Territory45%
28%From set plays12%
0.08Chance quality0.09
6.7%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estrela da Amadora, 2 for Arouca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estrela da Amadora
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.