Liga Portugal · Matchweek 24
Arouca
ARO
Sporting CP
SCP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arouca19%
Draw25%
Sporting CP56%
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.69
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.2%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
67%Possession63%
45%Territory52%
12%From set plays10%
0.09Chance quality0.10
5.1%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Arouca, 2 for Sporting CP. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.