Liga Portugal · Matchweek 24
Famalicão
FAM
Nacional
NAC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Famalicão52%
Draw28%
Nacional20%
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.82
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–011.3%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
49%Possession34%
25%Territory27%
46%From set plays59%
0.07Chance quality0.06
5.1%Directness7.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Famalicão, 2 for Nacional. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.