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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 24

Casa Pia AC

CAS

Estoril

ESO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Casa Pia AC34%
Draw26%
Estoril40%

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.53

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 0–18.6%
  • 2–17.8%
  • 1–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

41%Possession46%
41%Territory33%
24%From set plays9%
0.07Chance quality0.08
4.5%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Casa Pia AC, 2 for Estoril. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.