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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 23

Estrela da Amadora

EST

Rio Ave

RIO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Estrela da Amadora53%
Draw25%
Rio Ave21%

Expected goals

1.69 – 1.01

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–011.9%
  • 1–111.5%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 2–09.3%
  • 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

55%Possession57%
39%Territory36%
28%From set plays13%
0.08Chance quality0.09
6.7%Directness2.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estrela da Amadora, 2 for Rio Ave. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.