Liga Portugal · Matchweek 23
Alverca
ALV
Nacional
NAC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Alverca57%
Draw25%
Nacional18%
Expected goals
1.69 – 0.88
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
33%Possession34%
24%Territory27%
36%From set plays59%
0.13Chance quality0.06
6.3%Directness7.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Alverca, 2 for Nacional. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.