Liga Portugal · Matchweek 23
FC Porto
FCP
Casa Pia AC
CAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC Porto89%
Draw9%
Casa Pia AC2%
Expected goals
3.00 – 0.40
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
32%
Fair handicap
-2.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–015.3%
- 3–015.0%
- 4–011.1%
- 1–010.3%
- 5–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
62%Possession41%
51%Territory41%
12%From set plays24%
0.11Chance quality0.07
3.4%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for FC Porto, 2 for Casa Pia AC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.