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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 23

Estoril

ESO

Braga

BRA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Estoril18%
Draw22%
Braga60%

Expected goals

1.03 – 2.01

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–110.2%
  • 1–210.0%
  • 1–19.9%
  • 0–29.6%
  • 1–36.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

46%Possession63%
33%Territory54%
9%From set plays36%
0.08Chance quality0.08
5.6%Directness2.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estoril, 3 for Braga. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.