Liga Portugal · Matchweek 23
Santa Clara
SAN
Arouca
ARO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Santa Clara34%
Draw31%
Arouca35%
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.12
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.4%
- 0–112.3%
- 1–012.0%
- 1–27.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
44%Possession67%
33%Territory45%
27%From set plays12%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.6%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Santa Clara, 2 for Arouca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.