Liga Portugal · Matchweek 22
Nacional
NAC
Sporting CP
SCP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nacional8%
Draw15%
Sporting CP77%
Expected goals
0.74 – 2.51
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–212.4%
- 0–110.3%
- 0–310.0%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–37.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Sporting CP will have the ball; Nacional will not mind.
47%Possession66%
29%Territory46%
23%From set plays6%
0.10Chance quality0.14
6.9%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nacional, 3 for Sporting CP. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sporting CP
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.