Liga Portugal · Matchweek 22
Nacional
NAC
Sporting CP
SCP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nacional9%
Draw17%
Sporting CP74%
Expected goals
0.67 – 2.25
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–213.7%
- 0–112.7%
- 0–39.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
34%Possession63%
27%Territory52%
56%From set plays10%
0.07Chance quality0.10
7.9%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Nacional, 2 for Sporting CP. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.