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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 22

Rio Ave

RIO

Santa Clara

SAN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Rio Ave28%
Draw29%
Santa Clara43%

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.35

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.9%
  • 0–112.6%
  • 0–010.3%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 1–28.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

57%Possession44%
36%Territory33%
13%From set plays27%
0.09Chance quality0.10
2.6%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Rio Ave, 2 for Santa Clara. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.