Liga Portugal · Matchweek 22
Moreirense
MOR
FC Porto
FCP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Moreirense10%
Draw20%
FC Porto70%
Expected goals
0.62 – 1.99
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
40%
Fair handicap
1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–115.2%
- 0–214.5%
- 0–39.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
48%Possession62%
30%Territory51%
11%From set plays12%
0.10Chance quality0.11
4.2%Directness3.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Moreirense, 2 for FC Porto. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.