Liga Portugal · Matchweek 22
Arouca
ARO
Estoril
ESO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arouca63%
Draw21%
Estoril15%
Expected goals
2.02 – 0.92
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.3%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
67%Possession46%
45%Territory33%
12%From set plays9%
0.09Chance quality0.08
5.1%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Arouca, 2 for Estoril. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.