Liga Portugal · Matchweek 22
Braga
BRA
Alverca
ALV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Braga54%
Draw25%
Alverca21%
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.01
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.8%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
63%Possession33%
54%Territory24%
36%From set plays36%
0.08Chance quality0.13
2.9%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Braga, 2 for Alverca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.