Liga Portugal · Matchweek 22
Braga
BRA
Alverca
ALV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Braga67%
Draw20%
Alverca13%
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.85
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.5%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Braga will have the ball; Alverca will not mind.
61%Possession42%
49%Territory32%
23%From set plays37%
0.10Chance quality0.14
3.1%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Braga, 3 for Alverca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.