Liga Portugal · Matchweek 21
Estoril
ESO
Benfica
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estoril12%
Draw17%
Benfica71%
Expected goals
1.05 – 2.59
Over 2.5
69%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.3%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–37.5%
- 0–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
46%Possession64%
33%Territory47%
9%From set plays18%
0.08Chance quality0.08
5.6%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estoril, 2 for Benfica. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estoril
Benfica
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.