Liga Portugal · Matchweek 21
Estoril
ESO
Benfica
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estoril10%
Draw17%
Benfica73%
Expected goals
0.79 – 2.36
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–212.2%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–39.2%
- 1–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Benfica will have the ball; Estoril will not mind.
41%Possession66%
30%Territory52%
20%From set plays30%
0.07Chance quality0.13
8.1%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Estoril, 4 for Benfica. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.