Liga Portugal · Matchweek 21
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Nacional
NAC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estrela da Amadora50%
Draw27%
Nacional22%
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.95
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.3%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession34%
39%Territory27%
28%From set plays56%
0.08Chance quality0.07
6.7%Directness7.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estrela da Amadora, 2 for Nacional. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estrela da Amadora
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.