Liga Portugal · Matchweek 21
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Nacional
NAC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estrela da Amadora54%
Draw23%
Nacional23%
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.21
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession47%
35%Territory29%
15%From set plays23%
0.09Chance quality0.10
5.6%Directness6.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Estrela da Amadora, 3 for Nacional. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.