Liga Portugal · Matchweek 21
Vitória de Guimarães
VIT
Braga
BRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Vitória de Guimarães28%
Draw28%
Braga44%
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.44
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–08.9%
- 1–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession61%
40%Territory49%
26%From set plays23%
0.08Chance quality0.10
5.9%Directness3.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Vitória de Guimarães, 4 for Braga. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Vitória de Guimarães
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.