Liga Portugal · Matchweek 21
Marítimo
MAR
Arouca
ARO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marítimo34%
Draw28%
Arouca38%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.34
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marítimo get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession56%
28%Territory43%
67%From set plays6%
0.08Chance quality0.09
7.0%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marítimo, 3 for Arouca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arouca
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.