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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 21

Marítimo

MAR

Arouca

ARO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Marítimo34%
Draw28%
Arouca38%

Expected goals

1.26 – 1.34

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.7%
  • 0110.3%
  • 109.6%
  • 008.7%
  • 128.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Marítimo get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

50%Possession56%
28%Territory43%
67%From set plays6%
0.08Chance quality0.09
7.0%Directness3.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marítimo, 3 for Arouca. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Arouca

No regular with a goal involvement yet.

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.