Liga Portugal · Matchweek 21
Marítimo
MAR
Arouca
ARO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marítimo27%
Draw28%
Arouca45%
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.43
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 0–112.3%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
48%Possession67%
31%Territory45%
56%From set plays12%
0.09Chance quality0.09
6.2%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Marítimo, 2 for Arouca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Marítimo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.