Liga Portugal · Matchweek 21
Santa Clara
SAN
Alverca
ALV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Santa Clara39%
Draw29%
Alverca32%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.21
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
44%Possession33%
33%Territory24%
27%From set plays36%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.6%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Santa Clara, 2 for Alverca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.