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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 20

Nacional

NAC

Vitória de Guimarães

VIT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Nacional26%
Draw31%
Vitória de Guimarães42%

Expected goals

0.90 – 1.20

Over 2.5

35%

Both to score

43%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–114.9%
  • 0–013.6%
  • 1–113.3%
  • 1–010.8%
  • 0–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

34%Possession55%
27%Territory46%
56%From set plays18%
0.07Chance quality0.08
7.9%Directness5.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Nacional, 2 for Vitória de Guimarães. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.