Liga Portugal · Matchweek 20
Arouca
ARO
FC Porto
FCP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arouca16%
Draw27%
FC Porto57%
Expected goals
0.69 – 1.53
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
40%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–117.1%
- 0–212.3%
- 0–011.8%
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
67%Possession62%
45%Territory51%
12%From set plays12%
0.09Chance quality0.11
5.1%Directness3.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Arouca, 2 for FC Porto. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.