Liga Portugal · Matchweek 20
Benfica
BEN
Moreirense
MOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Benfica72%
Draw17%
Moreirense11%
Expected goals
2.40 – 0.86
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.2%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.6%
- 1–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
66%Possession48%
45%Territory30%
16%From set plays11%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.5%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Benfica, 2 for Moreirense. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Benfica
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.