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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 20

Benfica

BEN

Moreirense

MOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Benfica86%
Draw10%
Moreirense4%

Expected goals

3.05 – 0.63

Over 2.5

70%

Both to score

44%

Fair handicap

-2.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–012.1%
  • 3–012.0%
  • 4–09.0%
  • 1–08.2%
  • 3–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Benfica will have the ball; Moreirense will not mind.

66%Possession33%
52%Territory23%
30%From set plays37%
0.13Chance quality0.11
4.8%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Benfica, 4 for Moreirense.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.