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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 20

Académico Viseu

ACA

Marítimo

MAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Académico Viseu42%
Draw28%
Marítimo30%

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.21

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 1–010.6%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–18.6%
  • 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Marítimo get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

47%Possession50%
24%Territory28%
17%From set plays67%
0.11Chance quality0.08
8.3%Directness7.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Académico Viseu, 3 for Marítimo. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.