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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 20

Rio Ave

RIO

Estoril

ESO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Rio Ave43%
Draw26%
Estoril31%

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.34

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 1–08.9%
  • 1–27.4%
  • 0–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

57%Possession46%
36%Territory33%
13%From set plays9%
0.09Chance quality0.08
2.6%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Rio Ave, 2 for Estoril. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.