Liga Portugal · Matchweek 20
Braga
BRA
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Braga59%
Draw23%
Estrela da Amadora17%
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.92
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
63%Possession55%
54%Territory39%
36%From set plays28%
0.08Chance quality0.08
2.9%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Braga, 2 for Estrela da Amadora. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estrela da Amadora
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.