Liga Portugal · Matchweek 19
Estoril
ESO
Nacional
NAC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estoril41%
Draw28%
Nacional31%
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.23
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
46%Possession34%
33%Territory27%
9%From set plays59%
0.08Chance quality0.06
5.6%Directness7.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estoril, 2 for Nacional. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.