Liga Portugal · Matchweek 19
Moreirense
MOR
Arouca
ARO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Moreirense29%
Draw29%
Arouca42%
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.32
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.4%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–09.9%
- 1–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
48%Possession67%
30%Territory45%
11%From set plays12%
0.10Chance quality0.09
4.2%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Moreirense, 2 for Arouca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.