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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 19

Moreirense

MOR

Arouca

ARO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Moreirense32%
Draw28%
Arouca40%

Expected goals

1.26 – 1.42

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.4%
  • 0110.1%
  • 108.8%
  • 128.6%
  • 008.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arouca will have the ball; Moreirense will not mind.

33%Possession56%
23%Territory43%
37%From set plays6%
0.11Chance quality0.09
6.0%Directness3.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Moreirense, 3 for Arouca. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.