Liga Portugal · Matchweek 19
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Alverca
ALV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estrela da Amadora36%
Draw27%
Alverca36%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.39
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–08.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession33%
39%Territory24%
28%From set plays36%
0.08Chance quality0.13
6.7%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Estrela da Amadora, 2 for Alverca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Estrela da Amadora
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.