Liga Portugal · Matchweek 19
Estrela da Amadora
EST
Alverca
ALV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Estrela da Amadora52%
Draw24%
Alverca24%
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.22
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Alverca get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
47%Possession42%
35%Territory32%
15%From set plays37%
0.09Chance quality0.14
5.6%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Estrela da Amadora, 3 for Alverca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.