Liga Portugal · Matchweek 18
Arouca
ARO
Vitória de Guimarães
VIT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arouca43%
Draw31%
Vitória de Guimarães26%
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.92
Over 2.5
36%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–013.0%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
67%Possession55%
45%Territory46%
12%From set plays18%
0.09Chance quality0.08
5.1%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Arouca, 2 for Vitória de Guimarães. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Vitória de Guimarães
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.