Liga Portugal · Matchweek 18
Nacional
NAC
Santa Clara
SAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nacional22%
Draw27%
Santa Clara51%
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.54
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–09.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession48%
29%Territory32%
23%From set plays14%
0.10Chance quality0.13
6.9%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nacional, 3 for Santa Clara. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Santa Clara
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.