Liga Portugal · Matchweek 18
Nacional
NAC
Santa Clara
SAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nacional28%
Draw31%
Santa Clara41%
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.21
Over 2.5
37%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.9%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.7%
- 1–010.8%
- 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
34%Possession44%
27%Territory33%
59%From set plays27%
0.06Chance quality0.10
7.9%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Nacional, 2 for Santa Clara. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.