Liga Portugal · Matchweek 18
Alverca
ALV
FC Porto
FCP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Alverca13%
Draw23%
FC Porto64%
Expected goals
0.74 – 1.84
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.5%
- 0–212.7%
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
33%Possession62%
24%Territory51%
36%From set plays12%
0.13Chance quality0.11
6.3%Directness3.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Alverca, 2 for FC Porto. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.