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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 18

Casa Pia AC

CAS

Marítimo

MAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Casa Pia AC29%
Draw27%
Marítimo44%

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.48

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 0–110.7%
  • 1–29.0%
  • 1–08.3%
  • 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

41%Possession48%
41%Territory31%
24%From set plays56%
0.07Chance quality0.09
4.5%Directness6.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Casa Pia AC, 2 for Marítimo. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Marítimo

No regular with a goal involvement yet.

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 90 matches, not the full season.