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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 17

Rio Ave

RIO

Moreirense

MOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Rio Ave34%
Draw29%
Moreirense38%

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.32

Over 2.5

46%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.8%
  • 0–110.6%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 0–09.0%
  • 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

57%Possession48%
36%Territory30%
13%From set plays11%
0.09Chance quality0.10
2.6%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Rio Ave, 2 for Moreirense. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.