Liga Portugal · Matchweek 17
Nacional
NAC
Gil Vicente
GIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nacional25%
Draw31%
Gil Vicente44%
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.23
Over 2.5
35%
Both to score
43%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–115.3%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–28.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
34%Possession41%
27%Territory31%
59%From set plays14%
0.06Chance quality0.10
7.9%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Nacional, 2 for Gil Vicente. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Gil Vicente
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.